Scientists have cautioned that vague guidelines on achieving net zero emissions could lead to greater global warming than anticipated, undermining the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C, Reuters reported.

The warning comes as nations gather in Azerbaijan for UN climate talks.

Forests, oceans, and soils, known as natural carbon sinks, absorb about half of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities. Scientists emphasise that these natural systems are vital for stabilising global temperatures once emissions are slashed to near zero.

However, some countries are misusing these sinks to offset ongoing fossil fuel emissions, compromising their ability to address past carbon buildup.

Oxford University scientist Myles Allen, a key developer of net zero science, highlighted this issue, noting that some nations, like Russia, plan to achieve net zero while increasing fossil fuel use, relying heavily on their vast forests. Similarly, the EU has partially counted forest carbon absorption in its emission offsets.

The researchers called for a shift to “geological net zero,” where every tonne of CO2 emitted from fossil fuels is captured and stored permanently underground. Currently, only 0.1% of global emissions are captured in this way, far from the 100% target needed by 2050.

Without clearer rules and robust technology adoption, the world risks overshooting 1.5°C and potentially surpassing 2°C, with warming continuing. This warning follows predictions that 2024 will break records for carbon emissions and temperatures.